"Compound interest is
the most powerful force in the Universe."
This statement is
frequently attributed to Albert Einstein. The evidence for when (or if)
Einstein actually made the statement is slender.
However, it stands on its own as an interesting claim, regardless of
its historical origin. On average, stock markets produce a return of
about 4 basis points (i.e. four hundredths of a percent) every business
day. It seems like a paltry return. Indeed, it is quite
paltry. However, due to the effect of compounding, this paltry little
return can accumulate over years and decades to create extraordinary
amounts of wealth. This is one interesting thing about compounding.
Another interesting thing about compounding is the way it affects all
calculations about changes in investment portfolio value over time. We
will touch lightly upon this theme in various places on this web site.
This web site is all about investment performance measurement and
attribution. Our aim is to provide unique and valuable insights on
this topic. Some other sources chronicle the techniques that
people have used in past decades. However, we focus on the ideas
that we believe will prove useful over the next few decades.
Navigating this Web Site
The four main subject areas fall under the buttons on the left of
this page. These subject areas are:
- Investment Performance Measurement: Measuring the returns of a
portfolio, and comparing them with a suitable benchmark;
- Investment Performance Attribution: Explaining the sources of
differences in returns between the portfolio and its benchmark;
- Operational issues: Practical knowledge that is useful for
investment performance analysts;
- Risk measurement and management.
Investment Performance Measurement
Investment Performance Measurement gauges the returns of
investment portfolios. This is not always as easy as it seems to
be. See the
Measurement Errors page for some information about what makes
portfolio performance measurement difficult.
Investment Performance Attribution
Investment Performance Attribution explores the important question of
why an investment portfolio has performed better or worse than its
benchmark.
Attribution is an interesting and complicated problem. This web site
has a particularly strong focus on performance attribution. Hence, most
of this information on this web site is accessible via the
Attribution
Page.
In A Nutshell
The following simple example, using a notional fund XYZ over a single
month, encapsulates all the different aspects of investment performance
measurement and attribution.
- Step One: Calculate the portfolio return for Fund XYZ
over the month. It was 1.3%.
- Step Two: Calculate the benchmark return for Fund XYZ
over the month. It was 2.3%. We conclude that Fund XYZ
under-performed its benchmark by a full percentage point over the
month.
- Step Three: Explain why the portfolio under-performed the
benchmark. This explanation might include the stocks that the
portfolio contained, the sectors in which it was concentrated, the
timing of investment decisions, or other salient factors.
Steps One and Two comprise the performance measurement task. Step
Three is purely a question of performance attribution.
This web site contains a lot of information about all three steps.
Purpose of this Web Site
This web site provides some very detailed information about some of
the most commercially important questions in the field of performance
measurement and attribution. As a bonus, this information is also very
intellectually stimulating! (well .. at least to some). Please enjoy
exploring it. I hope it inspires you to think that there are practical
ways to improve the way your firm does performance measurement and
attribution.
Who is the audience for this web site? Investment performance
analysts, portfolio managers, quants, and other professional/managerial people who want to
extend their thinking on investment performance analysis.
There must be
a million sites on the web for retail investors and day traders.
However, this is not one of them.
Most of the material on this web site was developed by Damien Laker
CIPM,
the founder and principal of CompoundingHappens.com. Some material has been
contributed by other people, and is used with acknowledgement.
Forthcoming Master Classes
Damien Laker CIPM has developed a curriculum for a two-day master
class on "Essential Concepts and Skills for Arithmetic Performance
Attribution". This is similar to the one-day master classes that
Damien has presented in recent years, with extra instructional material,
and more practical exercises for delegates to attend during the class.
Are you interested in attending a master class in your area? We
are contemplating master classes in the following cities:
-
London
-
Hong Kong
-
New York
-
San Francisco
-
Sydney
For more details on the forthcoming master classes, please
look here.
If you are interested in attending a master class, please
send
us an email, with details of the city where you would prefer to
attend.
Quarterly Newsletter
We are very well aware of the deluge of unsolicited mail that
everybody has to deal with these days. However, we have received
feedback from some people that they would like to receive occasional
updates including a summary of what is new on CompoundingHappens.com™.
We have decided that a brief quarterly newsletter would help to keep
people in touch with new developments, without contributing to the
"inbox clutter" that afflicts most of us. The newsletter would
contain links to new material that has appeared on the site, and
information about forthcoming master classes and other events where you
can hear from CompoundingHappens.com. Unlike some other
newsletters, we would not burden you with rehashed
financial news, product announcements from companies, job
advertisements, or other ephemera.
If you want to simply receive a quick quarterly update of what
CompoundingHappens.com has to offer you, this is your newsletter.
Send
us an email to subscribe.
We will treat your email address and any other information you send
us in accordance with our Privacy Statement.
What's New on this Site
| When |
What |
| 2008.08.18 |
Added a new page about Risk.
This will be the start of a new section of the web site.
The initial material about risk explores the vital role of low
correlations in enabling investors to manage-down the risk of
their portfolio. |
| 2008.07.07 |
Added our fourth Opinion page.
This one has the title
How a Trigger-Happy
Banker Can Turn a 5% Market Wobble into a 40% Reduction in Your
Wealth. |
| 2008.06.20 |
Added a new page about
Performance Fees. |
| 2008.06.08 |
Added our third Opinion page.
This one has the title
What is CIPM?. If you wish to know the answer, have a
look at the page. |
| 2008.03.30 |
Added our second Opinion page.
This one is about Common
Misapprehensions in Investment Performance Analysis. |
| 2008.02.11 |
Added a new Opinion page.
Our very first opinion piece is
Current Attribution Methods Are All Wrong? Have a look
if (and only if) you enjoy reading challenging opinions about
investment performance analysis. |
| 2008.02.09 |
Added a new introductory chapter about
Arithmetic
Performance Attribution. |
| 2008.01.09 |
Modified the Feedback Page so
that it now collects feedback though
investment-performance.com, rather than through a web form. |
| 2007.11.21 |
Changes to the Measurement Basics
page. Added information about market and currency
exposures. Added Information about ETFs and ADRs.
Added a discussion forum for this page. |
| 2007.09.15 |
More updates to the Exposure page (but
it's still not complete!).
This page explains a lot of the calculations that are necessary for
portfolios containing leveraged instruments such as futures,
swaps, and options. |
| 2006.10.10 |
Added a new
Spreadsheet Example to the
Multicurrency Attribution page. |
| 2006.08.26 |
Added a new Annualization
page. This describes the basics of how to annualize
returns. It also touches on issues such as annualizing
continuous returns, annualizing risk estimates, and whether
there is a sensible way to annualize active returns. |
| 2006.07.03 |
Added a new page Drill-Down to
Security-Level Data in Sector Attribution. This page
shows how you can extend the stock-selection numbers (and
optionally the transaction cost numbers) down to the security
level. This can be very useful in providing people with
online reports that they can interactively explore, digging
deeper into the areas that worry them most. |
| 2006.05.26 |
Completed the page about Adding
Transaction Cost Measurement to
Sector Attribution. This method is based on the same
approach to transaction cost measurement that we describe on
the Stock Level Attribution page. |
| 2006.05.06 |
Introduced the Indices page.
This provides information about how indices are specified and
calculated. It give an overview of some fundamental
differences between indices that are widely available. It
also includes a paper by Dr Andrew Colin, describing problems
that he has encountered while trying to source high-quality
fixed-income index data, and how he has resolved those problems. |
| 2006.03.14 |
Made substantial updates to the
Multiperiod Attribution page, including a worked example,
and a discussion of some points of comparison between the
notional portfolio calculation and other methods for calculating
multiperiod attribution. |
| 2006.02.21 |
The Zero-Weighted Sectors page is
now complete. It provides solutions for a particular
problem in sector attribution, which is how to do the
calculations for a sector where the benchmark or portfolio
weight is zero, and the benchmark or portfolio return is
consequently missing. This new page includes spreadsheet
examples, and a PowerPoint presentation. |
| 2006.01.28 |
The Stock Level Attribution
page is now complete. It's a real humdinger, with two
journal articles, sample spreadsheets, and interesting worked
examples. |
| 2005.12.26 |
The Sector Attribution page
is now complete. |
| 2005.12.19 |
Added extra information and another spreadsheet to the
Interaction page. |
| 2005.12.07 |
Completed the Performance
Attribution page. |
| 2005.12.06 |
Added extra material about time-weighted and money-weighted
returns to the Performance Measurement
page. |
| 2005.12.02 |
Finished most of the Measurement Errors
page, including a detailed paper by Dr Peter
Vann, which shows clearly the statistical properties of the
errors that arise from using monthly performance calculations. |
| 2005.11.30 |
Added some material to the
Operational Issues page. |
| 2005.11.23 |
Added the paper "What is this Thing Called Interaction?" and
a sample spreadsheet to the
Interaction page. |
| 2005.11.22 |
Added a new section about
Arithmetic returns
and geometric returns, including
a paper on this topic written
by Owen Davies. |
| 2005.11.12 |
Added a new page on Benchmarks,
including a paper about benchmark rebalancing calculations. |
| 2005.09.01 |
Added new material
including a new paper exclusive to CompundingHappens.com™.
This new material critically examines some of
Menchero's arguments about the notional portfolio method for
multiperiod attribution. |
| 2005.08.26 |
Completed the section on
continuously compounding
returns. |
| 2005.08.11 |
The first draft of the
Multicurrency Attribution page is complete. |
| 2005.08.03 |
The first draft of the
Attribution Basics page is complete. |
Contact Information
Please note: We are very happy to receive feedback about the website,
invitations to speak at conferences, and sincere enquiries about
engaging us for commercial services (e.g. consulting, speaking
engagements).
However, if you are contemplating sending us a message about Viagra,
Nigerian money scams, or a request for free advice, please desist.
- Electronic mail
- General Information:
info@compoundinghappens.com
- Telephone
- +61 2 9552-1243
- Postal address
- Suite 6, 174 Bridge Road, Glebe NSW 2037 Australia.
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