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Compounding Happens

 

 

Measurement
Attribution
Operational Issues
Risk

 

"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the Universe."

This statement is frequently attributed to Albert Einstein.  The evidence for when (or if) Einstein actually made the statement is slender.

However, it stands on its own as an interesting claim, regardless of its historical origin.  On average, stock markets produce a return of about 4 basis points (i.e. four hundredths of a percent) every business day.  It seems like a paltry return.  Indeed, it is quite paltry.  However, due to the effect of compounding, this paltry little return can accumulate over years and decades to create extraordinary amounts of wealth.  This is one interesting thing about compounding.

Another interesting thing about compounding is the way it affects all calculations about changes in investment portfolio value over time.  We will touch lightly upon this theme in various places on this web site.

This web site is all about investment performance measurement and attribution.  Our aim is to provide unique and valuable insights on this topic.  Some other sources chronicle the techniques that people have used in past decades.  However, we focus on the ideas that we believe will prove useful over the next few decades.


Navigating this Web Site

The four main subject areas fall under the buttons on the left of this page.  These subject areas are:

  1. Investment Performance Measurement: Measuring the returns of a portfolio, and comparing them with a suitable benchmark;
  2. Investment Performance Attribution: Explaining the sources of differences in returns between the portfolio and its benchmark;
  3. Operational issues: Practical knowledge that is useful for investment performance analysts;
  4. Risk measurement and management.

Investment Performance Measurement

Investment Performance Measurement gauges the returns of investment portfolios.  This is not always as easy as it seems to be. See the Measurement Errors page for some information about what makes portfolio performance measurement difficult.


Investment Performance Attribution

Investment Performance Attribution explores the important question of why an investment portfolio has performed better or worse than its benchmark.

Attribution is an interesting and complicated problem.  This web site has a particularly strong focus on performance attribution.  Hence, most of this information on this web site is accessible via the Attribution Page.


In A Nutshell

The following simple example, using a notional fund XYZ over a single month, encapsulates all the different aspects of investment performance measurement and attribution.

  • Step One: Calculate the portfolio return for Fund XYZ over the month.  It was 1.3%.
  • Step Two: Calculate the benchmark return for Fund XYZ over the month.  It was 2.3%.  We conclude that Fund XYZ under-performed its benchmark by a full percentage point over the month.
  • Step Three: Explain why the portfolio under-performed the benchmark.  This explanation might include the stocks that the portfolio contained, the sectors in which it was concentrated, the timing of investment decisions, or other salient factors.

Steps One and Two comprise the performance measurement task.  Step Three is purely a question of performance attribution.

This web site contains a lot of information about all three steps.


Purpose of this Web Site

This web site provides some very detailed information about some of the most commercially important questions in the field of performance measurement and attribution.  As a bonus, this information is also very intellectually stimulating! (well .. at least to some).  Please enjoy exploring it.  I hope it inspires you to think that there are practical ways to improve the way your firm does performance measurement and attribution.

Who is the audience for this web site?  Investment performance analysts, portfolio managers, quants, and other professional/managerial people who want to extend their thinking on investment performance analysis. 

There must be a million sites on the web for retail investors and day traders.  However, this is not one of them.

Most of the material on this web site was developed by Damien Laker CIPM, the founder and principal of CompoundingHappens.com.  Some material has been contributed by other people, and is used with acknowledgement.

Forthcoming Master Classes

Damien Laker CIPM has developed a curriculum for a two-day master class on "Essential Concepts and Skills for Arithmetic Performance Attribution".  This is similar to the one-day master classes that Damien has presented in recent years, with extra instructional material, and more practical exercises for delegates to attend during the class.

Are you interested in attending a master class in your area?  We are contemplating master classes in the following cities:

  • London

  • Hong Kong

  • New York

  • San Francisco

  • Sydney

For more details on the forthcoming master classes, please look here.

If you are interested in attending a master class, please send us an email, with details of the city where you would prefer to attend.

Quarterly Newsletter

We are very well aware of the deluge of unsolicited mail that everybody has to deal with these days.  However, we have received feedback from some people that they would like to receive occasional updates including a summary of what is new on CompoundingHappens.com™. 

We have decided that a brief quarterly newsletter would help to keep people in touch with new developments, without contributing to the "inbox clutter" that afflicts most of us.  The newsletter would contain links to new material that has appeared on the site, and information about forthcoming master classes and other events where you can hear from CompoundingHappens.com.  Unlike some other newsletters, we would not burden you with rehashed financial news, product announcements from companies, job advertisements, or other ephemera.

If you want to simply receive a quick quarterly update of what CompoundingHappens.com has to offer you, this is your newsletter.  Send us an email to subscribe.

We will treat your email address and any other information you send us in accordance with our Privacy Statement.


What's New on this Site

When What
2008.08.18 Added a new page about Risk.  This will be the start of a new section of the web site.  The initial material about risk explores the vital role of low correlations in enabling investors to manage-down the risk of their portfolio.
2008.07.07 Added our fourth Opinion page.  This one has the title How a Trigger-Happy Banker Can Turn a 5% Market Wobble into a 40% Reduction in Your Wealth
2008.06.20 Added a new page about Performance Fees.
2008.06.08 Added our third Opinion page.  This one has the title What is CIPM?.  If you wish to know the answer, have a look at the page.
2008.03.30 Added our second Opinion page.  This one is about Common Misapprehensions in Investment Performance Analysis.
2008.02.11 Added a new Opinion page.  Our very first opinion piece is Current Attribution Methods Are All Wrong?  Have a look if (and only if) you enjoy reading challenging opinions about investment performance analysis.
2008.02.09 Added a new introductory chapter about Arithmetic Performance Attribution.
2008.01.09 Modified the Feedback Page so that it now collects feedback though investment-performance.com, rather than through a web form.
2007.11.21 Changes to the Measurement Basics page.  Added information about market and currency exposures.  Added Information about ETFs and ADRs.  Added a discussion forum for this page.
2007.09.15 More updates to the Exposure page (but it's still not complete!).  This page explains a lot of the calculations that are necessary for portfolios containing leveraged instruments such as futures, swaps, and options.
2006.10.10 Added a new Spreadsheet Example to the Multicurrency Attribution page.
2006.08.26 Added a new Annualization page.  This describes the basics of how to annualize returns.  It also touches on issues such as annualizing continuous returns, annualizing risk estimates, and whether there is a sensible way to annualize active returns.
2006.07.03 Added a new page Drill-Down to Security-Level Data in Sector Attribution.  This page shows how you can extend the stock-selection numbers (and optionally the transaction cost numbers) down to the security level.  This can be very useful in providing people with online reports that they can interactively explore, digging deeper into the areas that worry them most.
2006.05.26 Completed the page about Adding Transaction Cost Measurement to Sector Attribution.  This method is based on the same approach to transaction cost measurement that we describe on the Stock Level Attribution page.
2006.05.06 Introduced the Indices page.  This provides information about how indices are specified and calculated.  It give an overview of some fundamental differences between indices that are widely available.  It also includes a paper by Dr Andrew Colin, describing problems that he has encountered while trying to source high-quality fixed-income index data, and how he has resolved those problems.
2006.03.14 Made substantial updates to the Multiperiod Attribution page, including a worked example, and a discussion of some points of comparison between the notional portfolio calculation and other methods for calculating multiperiod attribution.
2006.02.21 The Zero-Weighted Sectors page is now complete.  It provides solutions for a particular problem in sector attribution, which is how to do the calculations for a sector where the benchmark or portfolio weight is zero, and the benchmark or portfolio return is consequently missing.  This new page includes spreadsheet examples, and a PowerPoint presentation.
2006.01.28 The Stock Level Attribution page is now complete.  It's a real humdinger, with two journal articles, sample spreadsheets, and interesting worked examples.
2005.12.26 The Sector Attribution page is now complete.
2005.12.19 Added extra information and another spreadsheet to the Interaction page.
2005.12.07 Completed the Performance Attribution page.
2005.12.06 Added extra material about time-weighted and money-weighted returns to the Performance Measurement page.
2005.12.02 Finished most of the Measurement Errors page, including a detailed paper by Dr Peter Vann, which shows clearly the statistical properties of the errors that arise from using monthly performance calculations.
2005.11.30 Added some material to the Operational Issues page.
2005.11.23 Added the paper "What is this Thing Called Interaction?" and a sample spreadsheet to the Interaction page.
2005.11.22 Added a new section about Arithmetic returns and geometric returns, including a paper on this topic written by Owen Davies.
2005.11.12 Added a new page on Benchmarks, including a paper about benchmark rebalancing calculations.
2005.09.01 Added new material including a new paper exclusive to CompundingHappens.com™.    This new material critically examines some of Menchero's arguments about the notional portfolio method for multiperiod attribution.
2005.08.26 Completed the section on continuously compounding returns.
2005.08.11 The first draft of the Multicurrency Attribution page is complete.
2005.08.03 The first draft of the Attribution Basics page is complete.

Contact Information

Please note: We are very happy to receive feedback about the website, invitations to speak at conferences, and sincere enquiries about engaging us for commercial services (e.g. consulting, speaking engagements).

However, if you are contemplating sending us a message about Viagra, Nigerian money scams, or a request for free advice, please desist.

Electronic mail
General Information: info@compoundinghappens.com
Telephone
+61 2 9552-1243
Postal address
Suite 6, 174 Bridge Road, Glebe NSW 2037 Australia.

 

Send mail to webmaster@compoundinghappens.com with questions or comments about this web site.
Copyright © 2005-2008 CompoundingHappens.com
Last modified: Friday, 25. July 2008